The Future Ready Index

The Future Ready Index is the first UK study to cross-reference future-proof employment with skills shortages and entry-level hiring trends. The data reveals a clear opportunity: the most resilient, in-demand occupations are exactly where better pathways could make the biggest difference for young people.

These are measurable, present-day challenges and ones that are well within our collective power to address. Creating clearer, more accessible pathways into the UK's most resilient occupations would benefit individuals, employers, and the wider economy alike: better matching young people to in-demand roles while building the pipeline of skilled professionals that businesses urgently need.

Three forces shaping the opportunity

1. AI is redirecting talent, not just replacing jobs

Most debate about AI focuses on displacement, which roles will be automated? But there is a more immediate shift underway. Roles with high AI exposure are already projected to grow less through 2034, and hiring of younger workers has slowed in the most AI-exposed fields.

This has real implications for careers guidance. Roles traditionally presented as accessible entry points: admin, customer service, paralegal, payroll, carry the highest automation risk in our index. Updated guidance that points young people toward more resilient occupations could make a significant difference to their long-term prospects.

Genuinely resilient occupations: skilled trades, healthcare, HR, engineering, require longer training and specialist entry routes. These pathways are navigable, but they need active support: from employers, educators, and training providers working together to make them visible and accessible.

2. Hiring intentions have collapsed, especially in the public sector

The CIPD Labour Market Outlook for Winter 2025/26, records employer hiring intentions at their lowest level outside of the pandemic, with a net employment balance of just +7.

The public sector which employs nurses, social workers, and teachers, is in a worse position still. Its net employment balance stands at -11 for four consecutive quarters, with recruitment freezes and redundancy programmes active across government.

Civil service entrants fell by more than 30% in the year to March 2025, the steepest drop since the 2009-10 austerity period. For young people seeking roles in social work, public health, or HR, public sector entry has become significantly harder, making the case for alternative pathways and employer-supported routes even more important.

The Employment Rights Act 2026 compounds this picture. Two in five employers expect to hire fewer permanent workers as a result, a change that falls hardest on entry-level candidates who rely on permanent roles to start their careers.

3. The apprenticeship pipeline is not keeping pace with demand from young people

Demand for apprenticeships has reached record levels. Around 430,000 undergraduate applicants (40% of the total) are interested in the apprenticeship route, with projections suggesting this could exceed half a million by the end of the decade.

Yet supply is not keeping pace with demand from young people. A growing proportion of Levy-funded starts are going to older workers being reskilled, a legitimate and important use of the Levy, but one that has coincided with a relative decline in early-career starts. In engineering, one of the UK’s most acute shortage areas, apprenticeship starts rose by 5% in 2025/26, but entirely among the over -25s.Starts for under-19s declined.

Reskilling the existing workforce is a vital part of closing the UK’s skills gaps, and it is work Reed Business School supports employers with every day. The challenge is ensuring that this sits alongside, rather than instead of, investment in early-career pathways. The data suggests that Levy-funded starts have not yet found the right balance: too few are reaching young people who lack the networks or resources to find their own route in.

There are reasons for cautious optimism. The government’s recent reforms to apprenticeship funding, including the introduction of foundation apprenticeships targeted at 16–21-year-olds and changes to Levy transfer rules intended to direct more funding toward younger starters, are steps in the right direction. If implemented effectively, these reforms could meaningfully rebalance the pipeline toward early-career entry, giving young people a clearer route into the UK’s most resilient occupations.

"We are focusing on reskilling today's workforce, but we’re not giving the next generation a clear way in. Reed Business School's Future Ready Index is a wake-up call for employers, educators, and policymakers to treat these talent pathways as a top priority.”

Lindsey Holland, Head of Apprenticeships, Reed Business School

The Future Ready Index 2026: full rankings

The table below ranks all 39 occupations by Future-Proof Score (0–100). Three additional data layers: shortage list status, entry pipeline trend, and a double jeopardy rating, show whether a role is resilient, in shortage, and closing its doors to young people.

Spotlight: the critical double jeopardy occupations

Seven occupations demand urgent attention. Each is rated critically future-proof, listed on the government's Skilled Worker Visa Temporary Shortage List, and experiencing measurable decline in young people entering the profession.

Electrical and electronics technicians

Electrical work is highly resistant to automation, and green energy infrastructure is driving strong growth through 2030. Yet engineering apprenticeships growth is driven entirely by the over -25s; under-19 starts have declined. Listed on the shortage list at £39,300.

HR and industrial relations officers

Human judgment and emotional intelligence make HR roles deeply resistant to automation. But public sector hiring, where many HR professionals work, has been in negative balance for four consecutive quarters, with recruitment freezes across government. Early-career HR roles have become extremely scarce. Listed on the shortage list at £33,400.

Renewable energy engineers

Renewable energy engineers score 84/100 on future-proof resilience and are among the fastest growing roles globally through 2030. There is a significant opportunity here: no dedicated degree apprenticeship pathway yet exists in England, and applications to renewable energy courses remain relatively flat. Developing clearer routes into this sector, and raising its profile with young people, could help meet one of the economy's most urgent talent needs.

Construction workers and site managers

Construction roles are highly resilient to automation, and apprenticeship starts have been rising. The bigger opportunity lies in improving completion rates and retention, keeping more apprentices on the path to qualification and long-term careers in the sector. Stronger employer support and better careers communication about the skills, professional standing, and earning potential of trades roles could make a significant difference. Listed on the shortage list at £33,400.

"Our research points to a clear and urgent opportunity. The jobs most resistant to AI disruption, the roles employers most urgently need, are precisely the ones where better-designed pathways could unlock the next generation of talent. That is a challenge we can do something about."

Lindsey Holland, Head of Apprenticeships, Reed Business School

We set out to answer a question that feels increasingly important: not just which jobs are resilient to AI, but which of those resilient jobs are hardest for young people to access. The data tells a clear story, and one that points toward practical action.

Hiring conditions are challenging, and public sector entry has contracted sharply. The Apprenticeship Levy is doing important work supporting reskilling across the economy, something Reed Business School is proud to be part of, but early-career starts need to grow alongside it. And career guidance in schools could do more to steer young people toward roles with the strongest long-term prospects.

None of this is inevitable. Half a million young people want an apprenticeship. Employers in engineering, healthcare, and technology urgently need domestic talent. The tools exist: the UCAS apprenticeship platform, the Levy, foundation apprenticeships for 16-21-year-olds, and the government’s target of higher-level skills for two thirds of young people by 25.

What is missing is a coordinated signal: clear, evidence-based guidance about where the genuine opportunities lie. The Future Ready Index is Reed Business School’s contribution to that signal, updated annually for educators, employers, and policymakers.

Methodology

How the Future Ready Index was built

The Index combines four independent evidence bases to produce a composite Future-Proof, plus three additional analytical layers unique to this research: shortage list status, entry pipeline trend, and a double jeopardy rating.

Component 1: Automation Safety Score (40% weight)

Drawn from Office for National Statistics (ONS) automation probability data, this component breaks each occupation into its constituent tasks and assesses how many could be substituted by machine learning, computer vision, or robotic process automation. The ONS data covers 2011–2017 and predates generative AI, so may understate risk for cognitively intensive roles. We treat it as a structural baseline, with qualitative adjustment informed by the Anthropic Economic Index (2026) for post-2022 AI exposure. Weighted at 40% as the primary measure of task-level resilience.

Component 2: Job Growth Outlook (30% weight)

Drawn from the World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2025, based on a survey of over 1,000 employers representing 14 million workers across 55 economies. Respondents projected whether each role would grow, decline, or remain stable through 2030. We use the net growth metric, forecast change in workforce size as a fraction of current employment, mapped to a 0–100 scale. Weighted at 30% as a strong but secondary signal to task-level resilience.

Component 3: Skills Demand and Qualification Premium (20% weight)

This component measures whether an occupation commands a premium for higher qualifications and specialist skills, a proxy for how complex and difficult to replace the human contribution is. Data is drawn from the CIPD Labour Market Outlook(Winter 2025/26), the CIPD Skills Barometer, and ONS earnings data (ASHE). Roles requiring formal accreditation or advanced expertise score more highly. Weighted at 20%.

Component 4: Automation Risk Triangulation (10% weight)

A cross-check on Component 1, drawn from PwC's automation risk analysis (updated 2021), which models risk across three stages: routine data tasks, semi-routine augmentation, and full autonomy. Where PwC and ONS diverge, particularly for cognitive roles in law, finance, and creative fields, we apply a qualitative adjustment informed by the Anthropic Economic Index. Weighted at 10%.

Composite score calculation

The composite score is calculated as: (Automation Safety × 0.40) + (Job Growth Outlook × 0.30) + (Skills Demand × 0.20) + (Automation Triangulation × 0.10). All components are normalised to a 0–100 scale before weighting. The additional Reed Business School analytical layers

The three additional columns: shortage list status, entry pipeline trend, and double jeopardy rating, are original to this research and sit outside the composite score. Shortage list status is determined by cross-referencing occupations against the UK Government's Skilled Worker Visa Temporary Shortage List (July 2025), using SOC 2020 codes. Adjacent codes are noted where no direct match exists.

Entry pipeline trend draws on EngineeringUK apprenticeship data, UCAS application trends, CIPD hiring intention data, and civil service entrant figures. It is a qualitative rating: declining, flat, or stable, based on the weight of available evidence. It reflects under-19 and early-career entry specifically, not total workforce flows.

The double jeopardy rating synthesises all five data layers into a single signal. An occupation is rated 'critical' if it scores above 75, appears on the shortage list, and has a declining entry pipeline. 'Emerging' applies where two of three criteria are met; 'moderate' where one is met with qualitative concerns; 'lower risk' where the pipeline is stable and no shortage is recorded.

Limitations and caveats

The ONS automation data covers 2011–2017 and has not been updated since, confirmed via a Freedom of Information response in November 2024. We will incorporate updated data as it becomes available. WEF job growth data reflects survey intentions rather than confirmed outcomes and is global rather than UK-specific. CIPD data is UK-based and current but also intention-based. All figures carry the standard limitations of survey research. The index covers 39 occupations and is not exhaustive of the UK labour market. Definitions follow SOC 2020 conventions where possible, with job titles simplified for accessibility.

Sources and references

Anthropic (2026). Labour Market Impacts of AI: A New Measure and Early Evidence.

Bon, E. and Cockett, J. (2026). Labour Market Outlook Winter 2025/26. Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).

Eloundou, T. et al. (2023). GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labour Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models.

Engineering UK (2026). Engineering and Technology Apprenticeship Starts Data 2025/26.

Office for National Statistics (2019). The Probability of Automation in England: 2011 and 2017.

Office for National Statistics (2024). FOI-2024-2364: Jobs at Risk of Automation by 2030.

PwC (2018). Will Robots Really Steal Our Jobs? An International Analysis of the Potential Long-Term Impact of Automation.

PwC (2021). The Potential Impact of Artificial Intelligence on UK Employment and the Demand for Skills.

UCAS (2023). Apprenticeships demand and application data

UK Government (2025). Skilled Worker Visa: Temporary Shortage List (updated July 2025).

World Economic Forum (2025). The Future of Jobs Report 2025.